Impact of Structural Uncertainty on the Time Parameters of the Project Schedule in a Coal Mining Application

Nazymko, Danylo

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Proceedings of International Conference on Applied Innovation in IT · 2026/04/22 · Vol. 14 · Issue 2 · pp. 235–242

Impact of Structural Uncertainty on the Time Parameters of the Project Schedule in a Coal Mining Application

Danylo Nazymko

📄 Download PDF DOI: Under indexing

Abstract

Stochastic Monte Carlo simulation has been used to simulate a mining program schedule in uncertain parametric and structural conditions. Task duration was entered as distributions, reflecting parametric uncertainty. To simulate structural uncertainty, the probability of the task occurrence and the correlation between tasks were considered. The combined effect of these factors was a novel aspect of this research. The probabilities and distributions of the critical path were analyzed as a function of structural and parametric uncertainties. Nonlinear dependences were registered as an effect of the uncertainties. A case study was conducted on an example of a mining program schedule having 107 tasks. This experience confirmed that parametric and structural uncertainties, when combined, can dramatically alter the distribution of the critical path, thereby altering decisions in project management and expediting. Enhancing the sustainability of the coal mining program can be essentially improved by eliminating task correlations and minimizing program structural uncertainties.

Keywords

Project Schedule Structure Uncertainty Stochastic Simulation Causal Analytics Expediting.

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