Evidence on behavioural and metabolic cardiovascular risk patterns in Ukraine remains limited beyond descriptive reporting from the WHO STEPS 2019 survey. We reconstructed the STEPS 2019 analytic framework and examined generational patterns of tobacco and alcohol use, body-mass index (BMI), and their associations with elevated blood pressure and self-reported cardiovascular history. We analysed de-identified microdata from the survey (adults aged 18-69; n = 4,409). The complex survey design was reconstructed in R and calibrated to Ukraine’s 2019 age-sex population distribution. Prevalence estimates were produced for tobacco and alcohol indicators, including product-type patterns by age and sex. Elevated blood pressure (SBP ≥140 and/or DBP ≥90 mmHg) was compared across BMI categories. Predictors of self-reported cardiovascular history (stroke and/or heart disease event) were assessed using standard logistic regression, survey-weighted logistic regression, and Firth penalized logistic regression, with backward AIC-based selection; performance was evaluated using ROC AUC and F-score on complete cases (n = 2,279). Current tobacco use was 32.9% overall (49.9% men; 17.6% women), with younger adults more likely to use non-cigarette products. Current alcohol use was widespread (≈69%). Blood pressure differed significantly by BMI, while self-reported cardiovascular history did not. In multivariable modelling, the best-performing specification was Firth logistic regression (AUC = 0.721; F-score = 0.447), identifying age, BMI category, history of high blood sugar, and salt consumption frequency as significant predictors (p < 0.05); tobacco and alcohol use were not significant, consistent with potential reverse causation. Findings support prioritising sodium-reduction and weight-management strategies, while interpreting behavioural associations cautiously due to self-report and the cross-sectional design.
Keywords
UkraineWHO STEPSCardiovascular DiseaseBlood PressureHypertensionBehavioural Risk FactorsTobaccoAlcoholSubstance UseBody Mass IndexObesityLogistic Regression.
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